Challenges in Real-Time Prediction of Infectious Disease: A Case Study of Dengue in Thailand.

Epidemics of communicable diseases place a huge burden on public health infrastructures across the world. Producing accurate and actionable forecasts of infectious disease incidence at short and long time scales will improve public health response to outbreaks. However, scientists and public health officials face many obstacles in trying to create such real-time forecasts of infectious disease incidence. Dengue is a mosquito-borne virus that annually infects over 400 million people worldwide. We developed a real-time forecasting model for dengue hemorrhagic fever in the 77 provinces of Thailand. We created a practical computational infrastructure that generated multi-step predictions of dengue incidence in Thai provinces every two weeks throughout 2014. These predictions show mixed performance across provinces, out-performing seasonal baseline models in over half of provinces at a 1.5 month horizon. Additionally, to assess the degree to which delays in case reporting make long-range prediction a challenging task, we compared the performance of our real-time predictions with predictions made with fully reported data. This paper provides valuable lessons for the implementation of real-time predictions in the context of public health decision making

Holomorphic variables in magnetized brane models with continuous Wilson lines

We analyze the action of the target-space modular group in toroidal type IIB orientifold compactifications with magnetized D-branes and continuous Wilson lines. The transformation of matter fields agree with that of twisted fields in heterotic compactifications, constituting a check of type I/heterotic duality. We identify the holomorphic N = 1 variables for these compactifications. Matter fields and closed string moduli are both redefined by open string moduli. The redefinition of matter fields can be read directly from the perturbative Yukawa couplings, whereas closed string moduli redefinitions are obtained from D-brane instanton superpotential couplings. The resulting expressions reproduce and generalize, in the presence of internal magnetic fields, previous results in the literature.Comment: 9 pages, no figures; v2: conventions for Wilson lines changed, major simplifications in expressions, discussions extended, typos corrected, some references adde

A Plasmodium falciparum Host-Targeting Motif Functions in Export during Blood Stage Infection of the Rodent Malarial Parasite Plasmodium berghei

Plasmodium falciparum (P. falciparum) secretes hundreds of proteins—including major virulence proteins—into the host erythrocyte. In order to reach the host cytoplasm, most P. falciparum proteins contain an N terminal host-targeting (HT) motif composed of 11 amino acids. In silico analyses have suggested that the HT motif is conserved throughout the Plasmodium species but experimental evidence only exists for P. falciparum. Here, we show that in the rodent malaria parasite Plasmodium berghei (P. berghei) a reporter-like green fluorescent protein expressed by the parasite can be exported to the erythrocyte cytoplasm in a HT-specific manner. This provides the first experimental proof that the HT motif can function as a signal for protein delivery to the erythrocyte across Plasmodium species. Further, it suggests that P. berghei may serve as a model for validation of P. falciparum secretome proteins. We also show that tubovesicular membranes extend from the vacuolar parasite into the erythrocyte cytoplasm and speculate that these structures may facilitate protein export to the erythrocyte

A relative value method for measuring and evaluating cardiac reserve

BACKGROUND: Although a very close relationship between the amplitude of the first heart sound (S1) and the cardiac contractility have been proven by previous studies, the absolute value of S1 can not be applied for evaluating cardiac contractility. However, we were able to devise some indicators with relative values for evaluating cardiac function. METHODS: Tests were carried out on a varied group of volunteers. Four indicators were devised: (1) the increase of the amplitude of the first heart sound after accomplishing different exercise workloads, with respect to the amplitude of the first heart sound (S1)recorded at rest was defined as cardiac contractility change trend (CCCT). When the subjects completed the entire designed exercise workload (7000 J), the resulting CCCT was defined as CCCT(1); when only 1/4 of the designed exercise workload was completed, the result was defined as CCCT(1/4). (2) The ratio of S1 amplitude to S2 amplitude (S1/S2). (3) The ratio of S1 amplitude at tricuspid valve auscultation area to that at mitral auscultation area T1/M1 (4) the ratio of diastolic to systolic duration (D/S). Data were expressed as mean ± SD. RESULTS: CCCT(1/4) was 6.36 ± 3.01 (n = 67), CCCT(1) was 10.36 ± 4.2 (n = 33), S1/S2 was1.89 ± 0.94 (n = 140), T1/M1 was 1.44 ± 0.99 (n = 144), and D/S was 1.68 ± 0.27 (n = 172). CONCLUSIONS: Using indicators CCCT(1/4) and CCCT(1) may be beneficial for evaluating cardiac contractility and cardiac reserve mobilization level, S1/S2 for considering the factor for hypotension, T1/M1 for evaluating the right heart load, and D/S for evaluating diastolic cardiac blood perfusion time

Hepatitis B virus infection among different sex and age groups in Pakistani Punjab

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is a serious health problem in the developing countries including Pakistan. Various risk factors are responsible for the spread of this infectious disease. Prevalence of HBV infection in apparently suspected individual of Punjab province of Pakistan was analyzed during January 2008 to December 2010. Current study was aimed to investigate the epidemiology and risk factors of HBV infection.</p> <p>Methodology</p> <p>Four thousand eight hundred and ninety patients suffering from chronic liver disease were screened for the presence of HBV DNA using qualitative Real Time PCR methodology to confirm their status of infection. A predesigned standard questionnaire was filled for all the patients that included information about the possible risk factors.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A total of 4890 ELISA positive patients were screened for Hepatitis B virus infection. Of these 3143 were positive for HBV, includes 68.15% males and 31.85% females. Male were observed to be more frequently infected as compared to the female with a positivity ratio of 2.14: 1. The rate of infection increases with the passage of time in the course of three years. Highest frequency of infection was found in the age of 21-30 was 34.93% followed by 23.83% in 31-40. Only (13.39%) were belonging to the age group 11-20 year. The rate of infection declines with increasing age as shown by age groups 41-50 (16.13%) and 51-60 (7.09%). While children aged 0-10 and very old >60 age groups were very less frequently 1.49% and 1.65% infected respectively. Important risk factors contributing to HBV spread include barber risk (23.60%), blood transfusion (4.04%), History of injection 26.19%, Reuse of syringes 26.60%, dental risk (11.20%) and surgical procedure (4.26%). Among the entire respondents trend sharing personal items was very common. History of injection, barber risk, surgery and dental procedure and reuse of syringes appear as major risk factors for the transmission.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Male were more frequently exposed to the risk factors as compared to female. Similarly the younger age group had high rate of infection as compared to the children's and the older age groups. Reuse of syringes', barber risk and History of injection were main risk identified during the present study. To lower HBV transmission rate Government should take aggressive steps towards massive awareness and vaccination programs to decrease the burden of HBV from the Punjab province of Pakistan.</p

A meta-analysis of long-term effects of conservation agriculture on maize grain yield under rain-fed conditions

Conservation agriculture involves reduced tillage, permanent soil cover and crop rotations to enhance soil fertility and to supply food from a dwindling land resource. Recently, conservation agriculture has been promoted in Southern Africa, mainly for maize-based farming systems. However, maize yields under rain-fed conditions are often variable. There is therefore a need to identify factors that influence crop yield under conservation agriculture and rain-fed conditions. Here, we studied maize grain yield data from experiments lasting 5 years and more under rain-fed conditions. We assessed the effect of long-term tillage and residue retention on maize grain yield under contrasting soil textures, nitrogen input and climate. Yield variability was measured by stability analysis. Our results show an increase in maize yield over time with conservation agriculture practices that include rotation and high input use in low rainfall areas. But we observed no difference in system stability under those conditions. We observed a strong relationship between maize grain yield and annual rainfall. Our meta-analysis gave the following findings: (1) 92% of the data show that mulch cover in high rainfall areas leads to lower yields due to waterlogging; (2) 85% of data show that soil texture is important in the temporal development of conservation agriculture effects, improved yields are likely on well-drained soils; (3) 73% of the data show that conservation agriculture practices require high inputs especially N for improved yield; (4) 63% of data show that increased yields are obtained with rotation but calculations often do not include the variations in rainfall within and between seasons; (5) 56% of the data show that reduced tillage with no mulch cover leads to lower yields in semi-arid areas; and (6) when adequate fertiliser is available, rainfall is the most important determinant of yield in southern Africa. It is clear from our results that conservation agriculture needs to be targeted and adapted to specific biophysical conditions for improved impact

A review of elliptical and disc galaxy structure, and modern scaling laws

A century ago, in 1911 and 1913, Plummer and then Reynolds introduced their models to describe the radial distribution of stars in `nebulae'. This article reviews the progress since then, providing both an historical perspective and a contemporary review of the stellar structure of bulges, discs and elliptical galaxies. The quantification of galaxy nuclei, such as central mass deficits and excess nuclear light, plus the structure of dark matter halos and cD galaxy envelopes, are discussed. Issues pertaining to spiral galaxies including dust, bulge-to-disc ratios, bulgeless galaxies, bars and the identification of pseudobulges are also reviewed. An array of modern scaling relations involving sizes, luminosities, surface brightnesses and stellar concentrations are presented, many of which are shown to be curved. These 'redshift zero' relations not only quantify the behavior and nature of galaxies in the Universe today, but are the modern benchmark for evolutionary studies of galaxies, whether based on observations, N-body-simulations or semi-analytical modelling. For example, it is shown that some of the recently discovered compact elliptical galaxies at 1.5 < z < 2.5 may be the bulges of modern disc galaxies.Comment: Condensed version (due to Contract) of an invited review article to appear in "Planets, Stars and Stellar Systems"(www.springer.com/astronomy/book/978-90-481-8818-5). 500+ references incl. many somewhat forgotten, pioneer papers. Original submission to Springer: 07-June-201

The Malaria Secretome: From Algorithms to Essential Function in Blood Stage Infection

The malaria agent Plasmodium falciparum is predicted to export a “secretome” of several hundred proteins to remodel the host erythrocyte. Prediction of protein export is based on the presence of an ER-type signal sequence and a downstream Host-Targeting (HT) motif (which is similar to, but distinct from, the closely related Plasmodium Export Element [PEXEL]). Previous attempts to determine the entire secretome, using either the HT-motif or the PEXEL, have yielded large sets of proteins, which have not been comprehensively tested. We present here an expanded secretome that is optimized for both P. falciparum signal sequences and the HT-motif. From the most conservative of these three secretome predictions, we identify 11 proteins that are preserved across human- and rodent-infecting Plasmodium species. The conservation of these proteins likely indicates that they perform important functions in the interaction with and remodeling of the host erythrocyte important for all Plasmodium parasites. Using the piggyBac transposition system, we validate their export and find a positive prediction rate of ∼70%. Even for proteins identified by all secretomes, the positive prediction rate is not likely to exceed ∼75%. Attempted deletions of the genes encoding the conserved exported proteins were not successful, but additional functional analyses revealed the first conserved secretome function. This gave new insight into mechanisms for the assembly of the parasite-induced tubovesicular network needed for import of nutrients into the infected erythrocyte. Thus, genomic screens combined with functional assays provide unexpected and fundamental insights into host remodeling by this major human pathogen

Indigenous Knowledge and Long-term Ecological Change: Detection, Interpretation, and Responses to Changing Ecological Conditions in Pacific Island Communities

When local resource users detect, understand, and respond to environmental change they can more effectively manage environmental resources. This article assesses these abilities among artisanal fishers in Roviana Lagoon, Solomon Islands. In a comparison of two villages, it documents local resource users’ abilities to monitor long-term ecological change occurring to seagrass meadows near their communities, their understandings of the drivers of change, and their conceptualizations of seagrass ecology. Local observations of ecological change are compared with historical aerial photography and IKONOS satellite images that show 56 years of actual changes in seagrass meadows from 1947 to 2003. Results suggest that villagers detect long-term changes in the spatial cover of rapidly expanding seagrass meadows. However, for seagrass meadows that showed no long-term expansion or contraction in spatial cover over one-third of respondents incorrectly assumed changes had occurred. Examples from a community-based management initiative designed around indigenous ecological knowledge and customary sea tenure governance show how local observations of ecological change shape marine resource use and practices which, in turn, can increase the management adaptability of indigenous or hybrid governance systems